The global smartphone industry is taking a hit from increasing uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace caused by a certain US President’s unpredictable trade policies.
According to data collated by analyst biz Canalys, shipments were down by 1 percent, marking the industry’s first decline in six quarters. It blamed this on weak consumer demand, saying that 2025 is shaping up to be a flat year overall as far as growth is concerned.
Meanwhile, another market research firm IDC reported a marginal increase in shipments of 1 percent during the same period, reaching 295.2 million units. It also blamed the lukewarm increase on macro-economic challenges such as foreign exchange instability, unemployment and inflation in some regions – plus tariffs.
“In the face of ongoing political challenges, the impact of war, and the complexities posed by tariffs, the 1 percent growth in the smartphone market stands as a critical indicator that it is poised to return to growth,” commented Anthony Scarsella, research director for client devices at IDC.
Previously, IDC had lowered its forecast for smartphone shipments in 2025 amid tariff and trade uncertainty, estimating that worldwide shipments are likely to be limited to 1.24 billion units, equating to an increase of 0.6 percent over last year.
The effect of tariffs is also noted by Canalys, which said that many vendors had hoped to see a rise in demand for the second quarter, but were instead forced to cut production targets in order to avoid a build-up of excess inventory.
America was the exception here, where the constantly shifting tariff policies and timelines from the Trump administration led vendors such as Apple, Samsung, and Motorola (owned by Lenovo) to maintain high inventory levels and frontload devices (import to stockpile) throughout the quarter, the analyst says.
“After a slow start to 2025, vendors are now well placed and ready to navigate what is expected to be a flat year for the smartphone market,” said Canalys’ practice lead for smartphone research Amber Liu. “Many consumers who delayed purchases in the first half of 2025 are anticipated to buy during the major shopping festivals and events toward the end of the year.”
Demand is likely to be driven by price-conscious buyers looking for a good deal to replace their old devices, the analyst house predicts.
Both market analysts place Samsung as the top vendor during Q2 with a roughly 19 percent market share, followed by Apple on about 16 percent and Xiaomi in third place with 15 percent. ®