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Just a few weeks ago, I wrote about how prices of HDB apartments could increase by up to S$55,000 this year. So what, you may ask, am I doing here now, talking about trend reversal? How can homes become more affordable if they are getting more costly?
The good news starts with the latest reading of the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI). The RPI tracks overall price trends in the HDB resale market using actual transaction data across different towns, flat types, and flat models. It uses Q1 2009 as a base level of 100, so for example, if the index rises from 100 to 108 over a year, it means resale flat prices have increased by about 8% overall during that period.
The reading for Q4 2025 showed nearly identical levels (even slightly lower) as in Q3, and just a 2.88% increase over Q4 last year. This is the lowest annual growth since 2019.
In comparison, the year before, prices went up by 2.6% just between Q3 and Q4!
4th Quarter 2024 to 4th Quarter 2025 (Flash Estimate)
| Year | Quarter | Index | % Change from Previous Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | IV (Flash Estimate) | 203.6 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | III | 203.7 | 0.4% |
| 2025 | II | 202.9 | 0.9% |
| 2025 | I | 201.0 | 1.6% |
| 2024 | IV | 197.9 | 2.6% |
What’s more, for the first time in six years, salaries in Singapore also outpaced housing prices in 2025, rising in nominal terms by 5%.
Here’s how it looks like across the past two decades. Whenever the green line is above the red, HDB apartments were getting more affordable, and when the red is above the green, they were becoming more costly relative to incomes.
As you can see, we’re back in the green in 2025 and the expectations for 2026 are good too. While Propnex predicts a 3 to 4% appreciation this year, it seems to be on the higher end considering last year’s figures.
Meanwhile, forecasts for local salaries put their growth at between 3 and 6%.
In the worst case scenario then, it looks that resale HDB prices are going to remain flat in real terms. However, there’s a good chance that they may continue to fall, as incomes catch up after years of inflation (not only in the real estate market, after all), finally making housing a bit more affordable.
Hopefully the trends hold in the foreseeable future as the compounding gains would bring them closer to where they were before the pandemic, reducing the load on second hand home buyers.
- Read other articles we’ve written on Singapore’s current affairs here.
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